ICES advice 2018

ICES advice on fishing opportunities

ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2018 should be no more than 115 335 tonnes.

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Stock development over time

The spawning-stock biomass (SSB) has increased significantly since 2006 and is well above historical estimates. Fishing mortality (F) has decreased significantly after 2005, and has been below FMSY since 2012. The recruitment (R) estimate for 2016 is above average

Figure 1 Hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. Summary of the stock assessment.Recruitment, F, and SSB plots show 95% confidence intervals (shaded area). Assumed recruitment values are unshaded.

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Stock and explotation status

State of the stock and fishery relative to reference points

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Catch scenarios

Table 2 Hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. The basis for the catch scenarios. All weights are in tonnes.

Variable	Value	Source	Notes
F (2017)	0.26	ICES (2017a)	Mean F(2014–2016).
SSB (2018)	267673.00	ICES (2017a)
R (2017/2018)	335071.00	ICES (2017a)	GM (1978–2014); in thousands.
Total catch (2017)	105223.00	ICES (2017a)	Forecasted catch from the assessment model (based on F(2017) = Mean F(2014–2016) plus additional discards.
Wanted catch (2017)	93588.00	ICES (2017a)	Based on average discard rates observed during 2014–2016.
Unwanted catch (2017)	11635.00	ICES (2017a)	Based on average discard rates observed during 2014–2016.

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Table 3 Hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. Annual catch options. All weights are in tonnes.

Show/Download Table

Basis	F	Catch 2018	SSB 2019
MSY approach: FMSY	0.280	115335	295193
F = 0	0.000	0	401929
Fpa	0.620	211827	206120
Flim	0.870	261716	160047
SSB (2019) = Blim	2.293	383469	44975
SSB (2019) = Bpa	2.731	395825	32001
SSB (2019) = MSY Btrigger	2.731	395825	32001
F = F2017	0.259	108119	301860
EU Recovery Plan^^	0.250	104736	304987

Basis of the advice

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Table 4 Hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. The basis of the advice.

Advice basis	MSY approach.
Management plan	The current recovery plan (EU, 2004) is based on precautionary reference points that are no longer appropriate. ICES has not evaluated this plan.

#Quality of the assessment
***
The uncertainty in the assessment is relatively high, with large changes in biomass estimates in consecutive years. The model confidence intervals are an underestimate of uncertainty because they are narrower than interannual changes in estimates in consecutive years. There is a lack of tuning data for the earlier years of the assessment, for some areas outside of subareas 7 and 8, and for the larger individuals in the population. Given the expansion of the stock into northern areas (ICES, 2017b), there is a potential that not all catches are reported for this stock. Biological sampling from these areas is also limited. The data compilation of this stock is very complicated because it is exploited by several countries and the assessment model configuration is complex. In turn, the assessment model is very sensitive to the data and the settings used. Hence, it is extremely important for the quality of the assessment to have the complete data for all the countries on time and in the right format.

Reference Points

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Herring in Subarea 4 and divisions 3.a and 7.d, autumn spawners. Reference points, values, and their technical basis.

Framework	Reference.point	Value	Technical.basis	Source
MSY approach	MSY Btrigger	45000	Bpa	ICES (2016a)
NA	FMSY	0.28	Stochastic simulations on a segmented regression stock–recruitment relationship.	ICES (2016a)
Precautionary approach	Blim	32000	A low biomass which was followed by a quick recovery.	ICES (2016b)
NA	Bpa	45000	1.4 × Blim	ICES (2016b)
NA	Flim	0.87	Fishing mortality resulting in a 5% probability of SSB falling below Blim.	ICES(2016b)
NA	Fpa	0.62	Flim/1.4	ICES(2016b)
Management plan	SSBMGT	No defined

Basis of the assessment

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Herring in Subarea 4 and divisions 3.a and 7.d, autumn spawners. Basis of the assessment and advice

ICES.stock.data.category	X1..ICES..2016c..
Assessment type	Length-based model (SS3; ICES, 2017a) that uses landings and some discards in the model. Additional discards are then included to calculate a catch forecast.
Input data	Commercial landings; four survey indices (EVHOE-WIBTS-Q4, SpPGFS-WIBTS-Q3, IGFS-WIBTS-Q4, and RESSGASC); maturity data: constant maturity (Martin, 1991); natural mortality: constant value (0.4).
Discards and bycatch	Data series from most fleets are available; 75% of the observed discards are included in the assessment (ICES, 2017a). The discards not used in the assessment are used to top-up the catch advice.
Indicators	None.
Other information	Last benchmarked in 2014 WKSOUTH (ICES, 2014).
Working group	Working Group for the Bay of Biscay and the Iberian Waters Ecoregion (WGBIE)

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Historical trends

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